Reasoning
The rapid growth of open-source LLMs, exemplified by the proliferation of models like Llama, Mistral, and Falcon, coupled with a vibrant community and decreasing hardware costs, strongly suggests continued expansion beyond 100 actively maintained projects by 2028. Major tech companies and research institutions are increasingly contributing to and releasing open-source models, fueling this trend.Key uncertainty
Significant advancements in proprietary, closed-source models could potentially slow the rate of open-source development and adoption if they offer a substantial and insurmountable performance or cost advantage.