Reasoning
As of late 2024, there are approximately 50-70 announced AI data center projects >100MW globally in various stages of development. Historical precedent shows megaproject cancellation/delay rates of 15-25% annually across infrastructure sectors, but AI data centers benefit from strong venture capital and tech company backing, reducing typical failure rates to 8-12% per year. During 2026 specifically, we should expect 4-8 projects to face material setbacks (applying 8-12% attrition to ~60 announced projects). The >5 threshold represents the upper end of this expected range, making it more likely than not that fewer than 5 materialize, but still a meaningful probability given supply chain constraints, power grid limitations in key markets (especially in the US South and Ireland), and potential policy/environmental headwinds that could accelerate during 2026.Key uncertainty
The pace of power grid infrastructure buildout in 2025-2026—if grid constraints emerge as a critical bottleneck earlier than expected, cancellation rates could spike to 15-20%, making >5 projects failing substantially more likely; conversely, if utilities accelerate capacity additions, the rate could drop below 5%.