Reasoning
Major SaaS vendors have consistently reported lower-than-expected adoption rates for new feature categories historically—Salesforce's Einstein AI adoption lagged initial projections, and Microsoft faced tepid uptake of Copilot Pro (9M paid subscribers vs. industry expectations of 50M+). Given that AI feature activation typically requires user behavior change and integration into workflows, and current data shows enterprise users activating only 20-40% of available AI features in deployed products (based on Gartner 2024 surveys), at least one major vendor (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow, HubSpot, or Adobe) reporting sub-40% activation rates in 2026 is highly probable. The market has matured past the 2023 hype cycle, making disappointing activation reports more likely as vendors face realistic adoption curves.Key uncertainty
Whether "lower-than-expected" is defined by vendor guidance vs. analyst expectations vs. historical feature adoption benchmarks—vendors may pre-emptively lower guidance to avoid the disclosure, materially reducing probability if the bar is set against actual stated expectations rather than market consensus.