Reasoning
Meta’s 2026 capex guidance, set at the February 2026 earnings call at $75–80B (midpoint $77.5B), already reflects a 12% y/y increase from 2025’s $69B actual; historical precedent shows Meta has revised full-year capex guidance downward by >$5B in only one of the past four years (2023), and the Q2 2026 earnings release on July 30 will occur before any material AI-infrastructure spend slowdown signals. Current 10-year Treasury yields at 4.15% and Meta’s Q1 2026 free-cash-flow margin of 34% indicate ample internal funding capacity, reducing pressure for a mid-year cut of that magnitude.Key uncertainty
Whether hyperscale GPU order cancellations or delivery delays announced by Nvidia or TSMC in late-July 2026 data could prompt Meta to slash its 2026 AI-capex allocation by more than $5B.