64% | Will Google's 2026 capex growth come in below 30% YoY?

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

3pt model spread around 64% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

3pt

62% to 65%

Consensus

64%

4 models

Evidence state

Aligned

Models broadly agree

Most divergent

Claude

-2pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 62%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 64%, leaving a 3 point range for review.

Primary review question

Not specified

Shared probability axis

Range 62% to 65%

Consensus 64%

Claude 62

GPT-4o 65

Gemini 65

Grok 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

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Reasoning

Google's capex base is now large enough ($30B+ estimated for 2025) that achieving 30%+ YoY growth in 2026 would require reaching ~$39B+, which faces headwinds from capex deceleration and efficiency gains. However, intense AI competition and management's

Key uncertainty

Not specified

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 64% · 3pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

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Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Alphabet 2026 annual report and earnings

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C048-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jun 6, 2026

Will Google's 2026 capex growth come in below 30% YoY?

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Model disagreement

Belief trajectory

Will Google's 2026 capex growth come in below 30% YoY?

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Model disagreement

Belief trajectory