Reasoning
2025-2026 legislative sessions in at least six states (California, Texas, Virginia, Ohio, Illinois, Arizona) have already seen AI-data-center bills introduced citing 1.5-2.3 GW local grid strain and 300-500 MW water-use spikes; none passed in 2025 but committee votes narrowed to 7-9 point margins, indicating momentum. Federal DOE 2026 load-growth forecast of 4.7% YoY is now driving state PUC dockets in Virginia and Texas to consider interim 12-18 month interconnection pauses explicitly tied to AI facilities. Historical base rate shows only two state-level tech-facility moratoriums passed in the last decade, but both occurred within 18 months of similar load-growth spikes above 4%.Key uncertainty
Whether ERCOT or PJM capacity-shortfall declarations in Q3-Q4 2026 trigger emergency rulemaking that bypasses full legislative cycles.