64% | Will Stargate (OpenAI-SoftBank-Oracle) miss any publicly-announced 2026 capacity milestones?

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventCapex & infrastructure

Will Stargate (OpenAI-SoftBank-Oracle) miss any publicly-announced 2026 capacity milestones?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

64%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

12pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

12pt model spread around 64% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

12pt

60% to 72%

Consensus

64%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Grok

+8pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Gemini anchors the lower end at 60%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 64%, leaving a 12 point range for review.

Primary review question

Whether DOE emergency permitting authority under the 2025 Grid Modernization Act will actually cut interconnection timelines below 24 months for projects >1 GW.

Shared probability axis

Range 60% to 72%

Consensus 64%

Gemini 60

Claude 62

GPT-4o 65

Grok 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Stargate's announced 2026 target of 1-2 GW of new US data-center capacity by year-end faces a 72% miss probability because only Oracle's 400 MW Abilene, TX site has reached final investment decision, while SoftBank's $100B commitment remains in term-sheet stage with no shovel-ready power-delivery contracts as of July 2026; US grid interconnection queues averaged 48 months for >500 MW loads in ERCOT and PJM per 2025 FERC filings, and transformer lead times have stretched to 42 months according to Hitachi Energy's June 2026 backlog report.

Key uncertainty

Whether DOE emergency permitting authority under the 2025 Grid Modernization Act will actually cut interconnection timelines below 24 months for projects >1 GW.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 64% · 12pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Stargate joint venture public communications 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C057-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 7, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventCapex & infrastructure

Will Stargate (OpenAI-SoftBank-Oracle) miss any publicly-announced 2026 capacity milestones?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

64%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

12pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

12pt model spread around 64% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

12pt

60% to 72%

Consensus

64%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Grok

+8pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Gemini anchors the lower end at 60%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 64%, leaving a 12 point range for review.

Primary review question

Whether DOE emergency permitting authority under the 2025 Grid Modernization Act will actually cut interconnection timelines below 24 months for projects >1 GW.

Shared probability axis

Range 60% to 72%

Consensus 64%

Gemini 60

Claude 62

GPT-4o 65

Grok 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Whether DOE emergency permitting authority under the 2025 Grid Modernization Act will actually cut interconnection timelines below 24 months for projects >1 GW.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 64% · 12pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Stargate joint venture public communications 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C057-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 7, 2026