Reasoning
HBM is experiencing explosive growth from AI demand (estimated 80-100%+ YoY in 2024-2025), but this growth rate is mathematically unsustainable and will decelerate as: (1) the market base expands, (2) supply constraints ease with new capacity from Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron coming online in 2025-2026, and (3) AI chip adoption curves typically follow S-curve patterns with decelerating growth phases. Historical precedent shows semiconductor subsectors rarely maintain >50% YoY growth beyond 3-4 years of boom cycles. With HBM already showing signs of supply normalization in late 2024 and multiple competitors entering the market, at least one 2026 quarter is likely to see YoY growth decelerate below 50%.Key uncertainty
The pace of large language model inference deployment and whether new use cases (automotive, edge AI, enterprise) can sustain above-50% demand growth throughout 2026, which would depend on capex cycles and AI adoption acceleration that remains difficult to forecast with precision.