Will nonfarm payroll growth average at least 150,000 over any three-month window in H2 2026?

The current 3.50 to 3.75 percent federal funds target range and the June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent for year end 2026 signal a restrictive policy stance that is likely to weigh on employment growth, while the nine of eighteen participants projecting rates above the current range underscore a bias toward caution rather than stimulus. Historical three month nonfarm payroll averages during past restrictive policy episodes have fallen below 150000 more often than not once the federal funds rate exceeds 3 percent for multiple quarters. The June 17 hold and erasure of the prior cutting bias further reduce the probability of a near term labor market rebound sufficient to push any three month window above the threshold.