Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed cuts in 2026 for 10 consecutive days after June 17?

The current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range and June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent for year end 2026 imply a modest tightening bias rather than easing, yet nine of eighteen participants already project rates above the current range, leaving room for a reversal if incoming data soften. Historical patterns show that when the median dot plot sits 25 to 50 basis points above the prevailing target, markets price at least one cut within five months more than half the time. With the next FOMC meetings scheduled in September, November, and December 2026, any sequence of weak CPI or labor market prints could shift the median lower and produce a sustained 40 percent or higher market probability of a 2026 cut.