40% | Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

27pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

27pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

27pt

28% to 55%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+15pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 55%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 27 point range for review.

Primary review question

Economic data releases in late 2026 could significantly alter the FOMC’s outlook on inflation and employment, influencing their decision-making.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 55%

Consensus 40%

Claude 28

Grok 37

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 55

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

The current federal funds target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with a June 2026 SEP median projection indicating an increase to 3.8 percent by year-end 2026, supporting the likelihood of a rate hike. Additionally, nine of eighteen SEP participants suggest rates may exceed the current target range, indicating a consensus toward tightening. However, the risk of economic slowdown and its impact on inflation may limit aggressive rate hikes.

Key uncertainty

Economic data releases in late 2026 could significantly alter the FOMC’s outlook on inflation and employment, influencing their decision-making.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 27pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-002

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

27pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

27pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

27pt

28% to 55%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+15pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 55%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 27 point range for review.

Primary review question

Economic data releases in late 2026 could significantly alter the FOMC’s outlook on inflation and employment, influencing their decision-making.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 55%

Consensus 40%

Claude 28

Grok 37

Gemini 40

GPT-4o 55

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Economic data releases in late 2026 could significantly alter the FOMC’s outlook on inflation and employment, influencing their decision-making.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 27pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-002

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026