Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings?

The FOMC would need to hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings (September, November, December, and a potential January 2027 meeting if counting within 2026). The June SEP median projects year end 2026 funds rate at 3.8 percent, which is only 5 to 10 basis points above the current 3.50 to 3.75 target range, suggesting the Committee expects minimal movement. However, nine of eighteen SEP participants project rates above the current range by year end, indicating meaningful probability of at least one hike. Chair Warsh's June 17 decision to hold and erase the cutting bias signals a data dependent stance rather than a pre committed path. Four consecutive holds would require inflation to remain sufficiently controlled and economic data to avoid triggering either hike or cut signals across a four to five month period, which historically is difficult to achieve without explicit forward guidance committing to holds. The modest SEP median increase combined with the mixed participant projections makes a string of four unchanged meetings less likely than a scenario involving at least one rate adjustment.