32% | Will the FOMC cut rates at any remaining 2026 meeting?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC cut rates at any remaining 2026 meeting?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

32%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

12pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

12pt model spread around 32% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

12pt

28% to 40%

Consensus

32%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Gemini

+8pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Gemini anchors the upper end at 40%. Consensus sits at 32%, leaving a 12 point range for review.

Primary review question

A significant and sustained deceleration in inflation or a material weakening of economic growth beyond current projections could prompt the FOMC to reconsider rate cuts.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 40%

Consensus 32%

Claude 28

GPT-4o 30

Grok 32

Gemini 40

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held rates steady since June 17, 2026, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has erased the prior cutting bias. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median for the year end 2026 funds rate has risen to 3.8 percent, with nine participants projecting rates above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, indicating a hawkish shift and reduced likelihood of rate cuts.

Key uncertainty

A significant and sustained deceleration in inflation or a material weakening of economic growth beyond current projections could prompt the FOMC to reconsider rate cuts.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 32% · 12pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-004

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will the FOMC cut rates at any remaining 2026 meeting?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

32%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

12pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

12pt model spread around 32% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

12pt

28% to 40%

Consensus

32%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Gemini

+8pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Gemini anchors the upper end at 40%. Consensus sits at 32%, leaving a 12 point range for review.

Primary review question

A significant and sustained deceleration in inflation or a material weakening of economic growth beyond current projections could prompt the FOMC to reconsider rate cuts.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 40%

Consensus 32%

Claude 28

GPT-4o 30

Grok 32

Gemini 40

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

A significant and sustained deceleration in inflation or a material weakening of economic growth beyond current projections could prompt the FOMC to reconsider rate cuts.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 32% · 12pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-004

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026