30% | Will the Fed announce a formal change to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy during 2026?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventWarsh institutional reset

Will the Fed announce a formal change to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy during 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

30%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

27pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

27pt model spread around 30% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

27pt

18% to 45%

Consensus

30%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+15pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 18%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 45%. Consensus sits at 30%, leaving a 27 point range for review.

Primary review question

A sudden change in inflation data or economic growth could prompt a reevaluation of policy, impacting the likelihood of a formal change.

Shared probability axis

Range 18% to 45%

Consensus 30%

Claude 18

Grok 22

Gemini 35

GPT-4o 45

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Given that the Federal funds target range has remained unchanged since June 2026 and nine of eighteen FOMC participants project the year-end 2026 funds rate above the current range, it suggests a cautious approach by the Fed amidst economic pressures. The recent statement from Chair Kevin Warsh indicates a shift towards stability, hinting that changes may not be imminent.

Key uncertainty

A sudden change in inflation data or economic growth could prompt a reevaluation of policy, impacting the likelihood of a formal change.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 30% · 27pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-REG-002

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventWarsh institutional reset

Will the Fed announce a formal change to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy during 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

30%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

27pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

27pt model spread around 30% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

27pt

18% to 45%

Consensus

30%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+15pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 18%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 45%. Consensus sits at 30%, leaving a 27 point range for review.

Primary review question

A sudden change in inflation data or economic growth could prompt a reevaluation of policy, impacting the likelihood of a formal change.

Shared probability axis

Range 18% to 45%

Consensus 30%

Claude 18

Grok 22

Gemini 35

GPT-4o 45

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

A sudden change in inflation data or economic growth could prompt a reevaluation of policy, impacting the likelihood of a formal change.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 30% · 27pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-REG-002

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026