Clean Hydrogen Faces Reality Check as Production Projections Slump
A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has painted a sobering picture for the clean hydrogen industry, with major projects facing cancellations and delays in key markets such as the US and Europe. The IEA's findings come as a blow to proponents of hydrogen as a master key for the energy transition.
According to the report, expectations for annual clean hydrogen production by 2030 are shrinking for the first time, with global production projected to reach just 1% of total hydrogen output by that year. As of 2025, about one million metric tons of low-emissions hydrogen are produced annually, a far cry from the IEA's previous projections.
"This is a reality check for the clean hydrogen industry," said Maria van der Hoeven, former executive director of the IEA and current chair of the Global Hydrogen Forum. "We had high hopes for hydrogen as a clean fuel, but it seems that progress has been slower than expected."
The slowdown in clean hydrogen production can be attributed to several factors, including changes to key tax credits and cuts in support for renewable energy in the US. The European market is also experiencing delays, with several major projects put on hold due to regulatory hurdles.
However, not all markets are experiencing a downturn. China has emerged as a bright spot for the industry, with significant investments in clean hydrogen production and infrastructure. "China's commitment to clean hydrogen is unwavering," said Li Xiaoming, director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy. "We believe that hydrogen will play a crucial role in our energy transition, and we're investing heavily in its development."
The IEA report highlights the need for governments and industry leaders to reassess their strategies for promoting clean hydrogen production. "This is not a failure of the concept itself, but rather a recognition that it's going to take time and effort to get it right," said van der Hoeven.
As the world grapples with the challenges facing the clean hydrogen industry, new markets are emerging as potential growth areas. Africa, in particular, has been identified as a key region for hydrogen production, with several countries investing in infrastructure and development projects.
The current status of the clean hydrogen industry is one of caution and reassessment. While major projects face cancellations and delays, there are still opportunities for growth and innovation. As van der Hoeven noted, "This is not the end of the road for clean hydrogen – it's just a bump in the journey."
*Reporting by Technologyreview.*