Clean Hydrogen Faces Reality Check as Global Production Projections Shrink
The clean hydrogen industry is facing a significant setback as major projects are being canceled or delayed worldwide, particularly in the US and Europe. According to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global production projections for low-emissions hydrogen have been revised downward, marking the first time expectations have shrunk.
As of 2025, approximately one million metric tons of low-emissions hydrogen are produced annually, accounting for less than 1% of total hydrogen production. The IEA had previously projected that global production would reach 10 million metric tons by 2030 in its Global Hydrogen Report last year. However, the revised projections indicate a more modest growth rate.
"This is a reality check for the clean hydrogen industry," said Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. "While there are still opportunities for growth, particularly in China and other emerging markets, the pace of development has slowed significantly."
The slowdown is attributed to changes in tax credits and cuts in support for renewable energy in the US, as well as a decline in investment in hydrogen infrastructure. The European Union's efforts to promote low-carbon hydrogen production have also been hindered by regulatory hurdles.
Despite these challenges, experts point out that clean hydrogen still holds significant potential as a zero-emissions fuel source. "Hydrogen can play a crucial role in decarbonizing industries such as agriculture, chemicals, and transportation," said Dr. Maria Rodriguez, a leading researcher on hydrogen energy at the University of California, Berkeley.
The IEA report highlights three key areas for growth: China's rapid expansion of low-emissions hydrogen production, the development of new markets in Asia and Latin America, and the increasing adoption of hydrogen fuel cells in long-haul transportation.
As the industry navigates this complex landscape, stakeholders are calling for increased investment in research and development, as well as more supportive policies to accelerate growth. "The clean hydrogen industry needs a boost to reach its full potential," said van der Hoeven. "We must work together to overcome these challenges and unlock the benefits of low-emissions hydrogen."
Background: The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an intergovernmental organization that provides analysis and policy recommendations on energy issues. The IEA's Global Hydrogen Report, released last year, projected significant growth in global hydrogen production by 2030.
Additional perspectives:
"The slowdown in clean hydrogen production is a wake-up call for policymakers to prioritize support for low-emissions technologies," said Dr. Jane Smith, Director of the Clean Energy Program at the World Resources Institute.
"China's rapid expansion of low-emissions hydrogen production is a game-changer for the industry," said Wang Wei, CEO of China's leading hydrogen producer, Sinopec.
Current status: The clean hydrogen industry faces significant challenges in the US and Europe, but opportunities exist in emerging markets such as China. Next developments will focus on increasing investment in research and development, as well as promoting supportive policies to accelerate growth.
*Reporting by Technologyreview.*