Bitcoin Ends Weak Quarter Amid Seasonal Pressures as mNAV Contracts in Treasury Companies
The third quarter of 2025 has come to a close for Bitcoin (BTC), with the cryptocurrency ending its weakest week of the year so far. According to data, BTC fell by 5% in Week 38, marking one of the largest declines this season. This drop is consistent with historical trends, which show that September and October tend to be weaker months for BTC.
Financial Impact
The quarterly decline of 1% may seem modest, but it has significant implications for investors and stakeholders. The mNAV (managed net asset value) compression in treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet is a pressing concern, as low volatility in BTC prices exacerbates the issue. This contraction can lead to reduced liquidity and increased costs for these firms.
Market Context
The third quarter has been marked by divergent trends between equities, metals, and USD. While some assets have seen significant gains, others have struggled to maintain momentum. The options expiry on Friday added to the market's volatility, with a max pain level of 110,000 acting as a magnet for spot prices.
Company Background
Strategy and Metaplanet are two prominent treasury companies that have been affected by the mNAV compression. These firms provide liquidity services to institutional investors, allowing them to buy and sell BTC without directly holding it. The contraction in mNAV has reduced their ability to offer these services, potentially impacting their clients' investment strategies.
Stakeholder Perspectives
Industry experts point out that the seasonal pressures on BTC are not unique to this year. "Historically, September and October have been weaker months for Bitcoin," notes a market analyst. "However, the current mNAV compression in treasury companies is a concern that requires attention from investors and regulators alike."
Future Outlook and Next Steps
As the market navigates these challenges, stakeholders are looking ahead to potential solutions. Some experts suggest that increased adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols could help alleviate liquidity issues in treasury companies. Others propose exploring alternative investment strategies that can mitigate the impact of mNAV compression.
In conclusion, the end of the third quarter has brought a mixed bag for BTC investors and stakeholders. While the quarterly decline may seem modest, its implications are significant. As the market continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor these trends and explore innovative solutions to address the challenges facing treasury companies and their clients.
Key Numbers:
BTC fell 5% in Week 38
mNAV compression in treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet
Options expiry on Friday with max pain level of 110,000
Quarterly decline of 1%
Historical trend shows September and October as weaker months for BTC
Sources:
MarketsShare
CoinDesk
*Financial data compiled from Coindesk reporting.*
