Bitcoin's Weak Quarter: Seasonal Pressures Weigh on mNAV Treasury Contracts

Bitcoin Ends Weak Quarter Amid Seasonal Pressures as mNAV Contracts in Treasury Companies The third quarter of 2025 has come to a close for Bitcoin (BTC), with the cryptocurrency ending on a weak note amidst seasonal pressures. According to data, BTC fell by 5% in Week 38, marking one of its largest quarterly drops this year. Historically, Week 38 is considered one of the most bearish weeks for Bitcoin, with an average drop of 4.6%. This quarter's performance has been particularly underwhelming, with a total decline of around 1% compared to the previous quarter. The September month-end close saw BTC trading at $109,707.61. Market Context and Implications The quarterly performance is not isolated to Bitcoin alone. Equities, metals, and even the US dollar have seen similar declines in value. This divergence in trends has led to increased volatility in the market, making it challenging for investors to make informed decisions. Treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are facing significant challenges due to the low volatility of BTC prices. These firms rely on the movement of mNAV (managed net asset value) to generate revenue. However, with BTC's price fluctuations remaining subdued, their earnings have taken a hit. Stakeholder Perspectives Industry experts attribute the weak quarter to various factors, including: Seasonal pressures: Historically, Q3 is considered one of the weakest seasons for Bitcoin due to reduced market activity and investor apathy. Low volatility: The lack of significant price movements has made it difficult for treasury companies to generate revenue. Future Outlook and Next Steps As we move into the final quarter of 2025, investors will be closely watching key technical levels and options expiry dates. With over $17 billion in options expiring on Friday, market participants are bracing themselves for potential price swings. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its momentum or continue to struggle with seasonal pressures. As the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly. Conclusion The weak quarter for Bitcoin serves as a reminder of the complexities and challenges inherent in the cryptocurrency market. As we navigate these uncertain times, it is essential to consider multiple perspectives and stay informed about market trends and developments. By doing so, investors can make more informed decisions and better position themselves for success in an ever-evolving market landscape. *Financial data compiled from Coindesk reporting.*