World on Track for 2.6C of Heating as Aviation Emissions Soar

The United Nations' aviation body, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), has projected that passenger flight numbers will triple by 2050, reaching 12.4 billion a year, despite climate policy for international aviation being deemed critically insufficient by independent analysts. According to the Climate Action Tracker, the current policy is aligned with a catastrophic 4C of global heating, far exceeding the 1.5C limit set by the Paris Agreement. The ICAO's main climate policy, a voluntary carbon offsetting scheme, has been widely criticized as weak and ineffective. The scheme requires airlines to buy carbon credits, but no airline has been required to do so yet. This has raised concerns among climate experts, who argue that the scheme is not doing enough to reduce emissions. "The ICAO has been captured by the industry," said Influence Map, a think tank working on lobbying. "Industry delegates outnumbered climate experts by 14 to one at the most recent environmental protection meeting of the ICAO." The aviation industry's reliance on fossil fuels is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with flying being the most carbon-polluting way to travel. Non-fossil aviation fuels, such as those made from plants or oil, face serious challenges of sustainable supply, while synthetic fuels made using green electricity are still in the experimental stage. The industry's failure to transition to cleaner fuels has led to calls for a "just transition" plan, which would help workers in the industry adapt to a low-carbon future. The ICAO's projections come as world leaders gather in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The conference is expected to focus on the need for urgent action to reduce emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy. "We need to see a significant increase in ambition and action from governments and industries to reduce emissions and transition to cleaner fuels," said a spokesperson for the UN Environment Programme. The aviation industry's failure to address its carbon emissions has significant implications for the global climate. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has estimated that the industry's emissions could reach 3.5 billion tons by 2050, making it one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. The industry's inability to transition to cleaner fuels has led to calls for governments to take action to regulate emissions and support the development of low-carbon technologies. The COP30 conference is expected to be a critical moment for the aviation industry, with world leaders and industry representatives expected to discuss the need for urgent action to reduce emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy. The conference will also provide an opportunity for governments and industries to showcase their commitment to reducing emissions and transitioning to cleaner fuels.