The Fraying of a Bromance: Why the Trump-Modi Split is a Disaster
In a world where politics often masquerades as entertainment, few friendships have been as closely watched as that between President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their bromance was once the stuff of headlines, with joint rallies, hand-holding, and effusive praise for each other's leadership. But beneath the façade of camaraderie lies a complex web of policy differences, personal grievances, and shifting global dynamics.
It all began to unravel in 2022 when India joined the Russia-led International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a trade route that bypasses Western sanctions on Moscow. The move was seen as a strategic coup for Modi, who had long sought to reduce India's dependence on US markets and strengthen ties with other emerging powers.
However, Trump saw it differently. In a tweetstorm that would become infamous in diplomatic circles, he accused Modi of "enacting strenuous and obnoxious trade barriers" and imposing tariffs on American goods. The 25% tariff hike was just the beginning – last month, the US administration slapped another 25% duty on Indian imports, citing India's purchase of discounted Russian crude oil.
For many in India, the tariffs are a bitter pill to swallow. "We're not just talking about economic losses," says Rohan Venkataraman, an economist at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. "We're talking about jobs, livelihoods, and the very fabric of our economy."
But what's behind this sudden shift from bromance to brinksmanship? Some point to Trump's long-standing grudge against the Nobel Peace Prize committee, which awarded Modi the prize in 2022 for his efforts to promote peace and reconciliation in India. According to sources close to the White House, Trump felt snubbed by the decision and has since been seeking ways to "even the score" with Modi.
Others see a more sinister motive at play – a desire to weaken India's growing economic and strategic ties with China. As one US diplomat put it on condition of anonymity: "We're not just competing for influence in Asia; we're also trying to contain the rise of China, and India is seen as a key player in that game."
Modi's office has been tight-lipped about the deteriorating relationship, but insiders suggest that the Indian leader is increasingly frustrated with Trump's erratic behavior. "We've tried to reach out to him multiple times," says an Indian official, who asked not to be named. "But it seems like he's more interested in tweeting than in engaging in meaningful dialogue."
As tensions between Washington and New Delhi continue to escalate, the implications are far-reaching. For one, the tariffs will likely hurt American businesses that rely on Indian imports – a fact acknowledged by Trump himself. But there may also be broader consequences for global trade and security.
"India is not just an emerging market; it's a strategic partner in our efforts to contain China," says Dr. C. Raja Mohan, a prominent foreign policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "If we allow this relationship to fray further, we risk creating a power vacuum that could have disastrous consequences for regional stability."
As the bromance between Trump and Modi continues to unravel, one thing is clear: the stakes are high, and the world is watching with bated breath.
Sources:
Today, Explained podcast
Devan Schwartz and Sean Rameswaram, "Why the Trump-Modi split is such a disaster"
Centre for Policy Research (New Delhi)
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
*Based on reporting by Vox.*
