Job Confidence Hits Record Low Since 2013 Amid Lingering Economic Uncertainty

Americans' Job Confidence Hits Lowest Point Since 2013 A new survey from the New York Federal Reserve has revealed that Americans have the least confidence in finding a new job since at least 2013, a period known as the depths of the "jobless recovery" following the Great Recession. According to the August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, the perceived probability of securing a new job in case of job loss has dropped to 44.9%, the lowest reading since June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, with those having at most a high school education experiencing the greatest drop in confidence. The survey's findings have sparked concerns among economists and business leaders about the state of the labor market and its potential impact on economic growth. "This is a worrying trend," said Julia Coronado, chief economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. "If people are less confident in their ability to find new jobs, they're likely to be more cautious with their spending and saving habits, which could have a ripple effect throughout the economy." The term "jobless recovery" predates the Great Recession that began in 2008, but it took many years for the economy to recover all the jobs lost in the crash after the subprime mortgage bubble popped. The concept refers to a period of economic growth without significant job creation. Economists point out that while the labor market has been improving overall, wage growth and job security have not kept pace with inflation. "The fact that people are less confident in finding new jobs suggests that they're not feeling secure about their current employment situation," said David Autor, an economist at MIT. The New York Fed's survey is based on a monthly sample of 1,200 households and has been tracking consumer expectations since June 2013. The data provides valuable insights into the state of the labor market and helps policymakers understand the potential impact of economic policies on employment. As the economy continues to navigate uncertainty, businesses are taking note of the decline in job confidence. "Companies need to be aware that their employees may be more anxious about their jobs than they're letting on," said Laura D'Andrea Tyson, a former chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. "This could lead to increased turnover and decreased productivity." The current state of the labor market is complex, with some sectors experiencing significant job growth while others struggle to recover from the pandemic-induced downturn. As the economy continues to evolve, policymakers will need to carefully monitor consumer expectations and adjust policies accordingly. Background: The Great Recession began in 2008 and lasted for several years, resulting in widespread job losses and a prolonged period of economic stagnation. The term "jobless recovery" was coined during this time to describe the phenomenon of economic growth without significant job creation. Additional Perspectives: A recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the number of long-term unemployed individuals has increased, contributing to concerns about job security. Economists note that while the labor market has been improving overall, wage growth and job security have not kept pace with inflation. Businesses are taking steps to address employee anxiety and turnover, including offering training programs and flexible work arrangements. Next Developments: The New York Fed will continue to release its Survey of Consumer Expectations on a monthly basis. Policymakers will closely monitor the data to inform economic decisions and adjust policies accordingly. As the labor market continues to evolve, businesses will need to adapt to changing consumer expectations and employee needs. *Reporting by Fortune.*