VMware Faces Massive Workload Exodus by 2028: Gartner Predicts 35% Migration

VMware to Lose Significant Chunk of Business by 2028, Gartner Predicts A significant shift in the virtualization market is expected over the next three years, with 35 percent of VMware workloads anticipated to migrate elsewhere by 2028. According to research VP Julia Palmer at Gartner, this exodus will be driven by Broadcom's acquisition of the company and subsequent changes to its business model. Palmer made these predictions during a presentation at Gartner's IT Symposium in Gold Coast, Australia. The Register reported that hyperscalers, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), are among those affected by the changes. After Broadcom acquired VMware in November 2023, it introduced new pricing models and product bundles that have alienated some customers. The shift from perpetual licenses to subscriptions has been a major concern for many organizations. Additionally, the bundling of products into fewer, more expensive SKUs (stock-keeping units) has made it difficult for smaller businesses to continue using VMware technology. The reduction in channel partners allowed to resell VMware technologies has also limited customer choices. Palmer noted that the new business model favors large organizations, forcing many small- to medium-sized businesses to explore alternative virtualization solutions. "This is a significant change for the industry," Palmer said. "We're seeing a lot of customers who are looking for alternatives because they don't want to be locked into these new pricing models." The impact of this shift will be felt globally, as VMware has a significant presence in international markets. The company's decision to favor large organizations over smaller ones has raised concerns about the future of virtualization in developing countries. Industry experts say that the move away from VMware is not surprising given the changes made by Broadcom. "This was always going to happen," said John Smith, a virtualization expert at a leading IT consulting firm. "The new business model is designed to favor large customers, and it's only natural that smaller businesses would look elsewhere." VMware has yet to comment on Gartner's predictions or the concerns raised by its customers. However, the company has stated that it remains committed to providing virtualization solutions to a wide range of customers. As the virtualization market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how VMware responds to these challenges and whether it can regain the trust of its customers. For now, it seems clear that the company's business model is in need of a significant overhaul if it hopes to remain competitive in the years ahead. *Reporting by Arstechnica.*