[
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-SJM-20260531",
    "question": "Will The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) report Q4 FY2026 revenue above $2.3B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 25.0,
    "consensus_delta": -13.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-02-26",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-SJM-20260531",
    "question": "Will The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) report Q4 FY2026 EPS above $-6.79?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 73,
    "spread": 64,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 95,
    "grok_prob": 99,
    "resolution_date": "2026-02-26",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260301-19510bea",
    "question": "Will the US President's 2026 Trade Policy Agenda be released by March 1, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 85,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 70,
    "claude_prob": 90,
    "gemini_prob": 85,
    "grok_prob": 95,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-01",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260301-6d307103",
    "question": "Will the President's 2026 Trade Policy Agenda be released by March 1, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 80,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 75,
    "claude_prob": null,
    "gemini_prob": 85,
    "grok_prob": null,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-01",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260305-2d9fefb7",
    "question": "Will the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report show U.S. crude oil inventories exceeding 450 million barrels on the release covering the week of March 4, 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 48,
    "spread": 53,
    "spread_delta": 3.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 55,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 12,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-05",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-BBY-20260305",
    "question": "Will Best Buy Company, Inc. (BBY) report Q4 FY2026 revenue above $9.7B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-05",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-DKS-20260305",
    "question": "Will Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) report Q4 FY2026 revenue above $4.2B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 46,
    "spread": 55,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-05",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-BBY-20260305",
    "question": "Will Best Buy Company, Inc. (BBY) report Q4 FY2026 EPS above $0.66?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-05",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-DKS-20260305",
    "question": "Will Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) report Q4 FY2026 EPS above $0.86?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 63,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-05",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HSG-20260305-a79db3c7",
    "question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceed 6.0% on the March 5, 2026 weekly release?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 25.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 80,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-05",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260306-ad92c489",
    "question": "Will initial jobless claims exceed 220 thousand for the week ending March 7, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 0,
    "spread_delta": -30.0,
    "consensus_delta": 23.3,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-06",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-NFP-20260306",
    "question": "Will US nonfarm payrolls for February 2026 come in below 130K as reported by the BLS?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 36,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 20,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-06",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-UNEMP-20260306",
    "question": "Will the US unemployment rate for February 2026 exceed 4.6% as reported by the BLS?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 42,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-06",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260307-b95cccbf",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin spot ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB) see combined net inflows exceeding $400M this week (week of March 2-6, 2026)?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 57,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-07",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ASIA-20260310-dc73592a",
    "question": "Will China CPI YoY for February 2026 exceed 0.5%?",
    "category": "asia_macro",
    "consensus": 68,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.1,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 85,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260310-07d09cb1",
    "question": "Will the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released on March 10, 2026 forecast Brent crude oil price averaging below $60 per barrel for 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 21,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -28.7,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260310-ac711e98",
    "question": "Will the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for March 2026 forecast Brent crude oil prices to average below $60/barrel for 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260310-ef4c4df2",
    "question": "Will the March 2026 STEO forecast global oil inventory builds exceeding 3.0 million b/d average for 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 33,
    "spread": 55,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 5,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-ABM-20260310",
    "question": "Will ABM Industries, Inc. (ABM) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $2.3B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 68,
    "spread": 15,
    "spread_delta": -20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 13.8,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-HPE-20260310",
    "question": "Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $9.7B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 40,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-ORCL-20260310",
    "question": "Will Oracle (ORCL) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $16.9B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 60,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-ABM-20260310",
    "question": "Will ABM Industries, Inc. (ABM) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.56?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-HPE-20260310",
    "question": "Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.12?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-ORCL-20260310",
    "question": "Will Oracle (ORCL) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $1.71?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 71,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 10.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-10",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260311-31594fcd",
    "question": "Will the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending March 6, 2026 be released on schedule (Wednesday, March 11, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET)?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 89,
    "spread": 24,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 75,
    "claude_prob": 85,
    "gemini_prob": 99,
    "grok_prob": 99,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-11",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CPI-20260311",
    "question": "Will US CPI YoY for February 2026 come in above 2.4% as reported by the BLS?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 48,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-11",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-KR-20260312",
    "question": "Will The Kroger Co. (KR) report Q4 FY2026 revenue above $33.9B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 57,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-LEN-20260409",
    "question": "Will Lennar Corporation Class A (LEN) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $9.4B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 55,
    "spread_delta": 25.0,
    "consensus_delta": -8.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-DG-20260312",
    "question": "Will Dollar General (DG) report Q4 FY2025 EPS above $1.61?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -17.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 45,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-KR-20260312",
    "question": "Will The Kroger Co. (KR) report Q4 FY2026 EPS above $-2.02?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 63,
    "spread": 65,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -8.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 95,
    "grok_prob": 95,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-LEN-20260409",
    "question": "Will Lennar Corporation Class A (LEN) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $1.92?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HSG-20260312-e51375fa",
    "question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate fall below 5.9% on the March 12, 2026 weekly release?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 11.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260306-9490b3e4",
    "question": "Will continuing claims fall below 1,830 thousand for the week ending February 28, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260312-ba762f59",
    "question": "Will JOLTS job openings exceed 7.5 million for January 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 8.7,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260312-cd1ada64",
    "question": "Will US Initial Jobless Claims exceed 220,000 for the week ending March 7, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 57,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 25.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-001",
    "question": "Will US CPI YoY for February 2026 come in above 3.0%?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 43,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 45,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260312-10c71d8e",
    "question": "Will the doubled 50% US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum take effect by March 12, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 15,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 5,
    "grok_prob": 10,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-12",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ETF-20260313-0aef2f11",
    "question": "Will SPY/VOO/IVV combined see weekly net inflows above $5B this week?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 26,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-13",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ETF-20260313-a7b54e2b",
    "question": "Will QQQ see weekly net inflows above $2B this week?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 37,
    "spread": 65,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 10,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-13",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GDP-20260313-NEG",
    "question": "Will US second GDP for Q4 2025 be negative?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 23,
    "spread": 15,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-13",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-PCE-20260313",
    "question": "Will US Core PCE YoY for January 2026 come in above 3.0% as reported by the BEA?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 32,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -25.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-13",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260313-816fb2e3",
    "question": "Will Canada implement its announced retaliatory tariffs worth CA$29.8 billion (US$20 billion) on US steel, aluminum, cast iron products and more by March 13, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 71,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 75,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-13",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260314-bac3e996",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin spot ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB) see net inflows exceeding $350M this week (March 9-13, 2026)?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-14",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260314-cf1972bb",
    "question": "Will total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows exceed $700M in the week of March 9-13, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 7.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-14",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-20260314-e3b1a665",
    "question": "Will the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading for March 2026 fall below 65.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 48,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-14",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260316-8b8e2b3e",
    "question": "Will Ethereum spot ETFs record net outflows exceeding $100M in the week of March 9-13, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 25,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-16",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-DLTR-20260316",
    "question": "Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) report Q4 FY2025 revenue above $5.5B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 60,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-16",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-DLTR-20260316",
    "question": "Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) report Q4 FY2025 EPS above $2.50?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 30,
    "spread": 60,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-16",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-20260317-59dfdf4c",
    "question": "Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $3.6B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": -25.0,
    "consensus_delta": 13.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-17",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FOMC-20260317",
    "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the March 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?",
    "category": "central_banks",
    "consensus": 38,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-17",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CB-001",
    "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 FOMC meeting?",
    "category": "central_banks",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 30.0,
    "consensus_delta": 16.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CB-005",
    "question": "Will the Fed dot plot median for 2026 show fewer than 2 cuts at the March meeting?",
    "category": "central_banks",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260318-dc9c87dd",
    "question": "Will the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending March 13, 2026 show US crude oil inventories changing by more than -2.0 million barrels?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260318-00fddacf",
    "question": "Will Ethereum fall below $1,776 by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 36,
    "spread": 60,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260318-88481790",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin exceed $70,000 by 2026-03-18?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 52,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260318-9389e0df",
    "question": "Will Ethereum exceed $2,160 by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 68,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260318-be546b53",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin fall below $65,000 by 2026-03-18?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260318-f1289355",
    "question": "Will Ethereum exceed $1,979 by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 71,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-20260318-6bb8df74",
    "question": "Will General Mills (GIS) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $4.4B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 85,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-20260318-6e6c8b1a",
    "question": "Will Micron (MU) report Q2 FY2026 revenue above $19.2B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 31,
    "spread": 75,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 0,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-JBL-20260409",
    "question": "Will Jabil Inc. (JBL) report Q2 FY2026 revenue above $8.3B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 60,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ECB-20260318",
    "question": "Will the ECB cut rates at its March 18, 2026 meeting?",
    "category": "central_banks",
    "consensus": 46,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 8.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 45,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-GIS-20260318",
    "question": "Will General Mills (GIS) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $1.03?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-JBL-20260409",
    "question": "Will Jabil Inc. (JBL) report Q2 FY2026 EPS above $1.35?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-MU-20260318",
    "question": "Will Micron (MU) report Q2 FY2026 EPS above $8.42?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 26,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -35.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FIN-20260318-48bbd305",
    "question": "Will the VIX close above 25 by 2026-03-18?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 35,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FIN-20260318-7ef0b9b4",
    "question": "Will the S&P 500 close below 6790 by 2026-03-18?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 10,
    "spread": 14,
    "spread_delta": -80.0,
    "consensus_delta": -36.2,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 15,
    "claude_prob": 10,
    "gemini_prob": 1,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FIN-20260318-9e0d8a08",
    "question": "Will the VIX exceed 20 by 2026-03-18?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.7,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FIN-20260318-c28674a7",
    "question": "Will the S&P 500 test below 6800 (gamma support) by 2026-03-18?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 12,
    "spread": 19,
    "spread_delta": -1.0,
    "consensus_delta": -8.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 15,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 1,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FOMC-20260318-DOT",
    "question": "Will the March 2026 FOMC dot plot median show 2 or more rate cuts for 2026?",
    "category": "central_banks",
    "consensus": 46,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-50d0cc42",
    "question": "Will U.S. or allied forces sink or disable at least one additional Iranian naval vessel by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 27,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-5d8c9891",
    "question": "Will a ceasefire agreement between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran be announced by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 26,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 25,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-6a8af2b6",
    "question": "Will the UN Security Council vote on a resolution regarding the US-Israel-Iran conflict by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 75,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-738996a5",
    "question": "Will the US enforce new sanctions on Iran with a compliance deadline before March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 67,
    "spread": 15,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-76fd0fbc",
    "question": "Will the U.S. or Israel conduct a confirmed strike on Iran's remaining nuclear weapons facilities by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 32,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 25,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-a6acbff4",
    "question": "Will the U.S.-Iran military conflict expand to include ground operations in Iran by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 16,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.7,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 15,
    "gemini_prob": 5,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-b0ba4c66",
    "question": "Will Iran's Interim Leadership Council collapse or be replaced by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 20,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-c963f2d7",
    "question": "Will Iran's Interim Leadership Council establish functional control over all Iranian provinces by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 22,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GEO-20260318-d7e63a5e",
    "question": "Will Israel launch a ground invasion of Lebanon by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "geopolitics",
    "consensus": 32,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-20260318-7f10e558",
    "question": "Will US retail sales for February 2026 show a month-over-month decline as reported by the Census Bureau?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 40,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-PPI-20260318",
    "question": "Will US PPI YoY for February 2026 come in above 3.0% as reported by the BLS?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 40,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 45,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260318-5416b971",
    "question": "Will Canada impose its announced additional retaliatory tariffs worth CA$29.8 billion (US$20 billion) on US goods by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260318-bed365ac",
    "question": "Will the US announce new sector-specific Section 232 tariffs by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": 30.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 20,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260318-d4d21a71",
    "question": "Will President Trump increase the Section 122 global tariffs from 10% to 15% by March 18, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 31,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-18",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ASIA-20260319-a6cd8d58",
    "question": "Will BOJ policy rate remain at or below 0.25% following the March 2026 meeting?",
    "category": "asia_macro",
    "consensus": 80,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.7,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 85,
    "gemini_prob": 75,
    "grok_prob": 95,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-ACN-20260330",
    "question": "Will Accenture PLC (ACN) report Q2 FY2026 revenue above $18.7B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 75,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 70,
    "claude_prob": 80,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-CCL-20260409",
    "question": "Will Carnival Corporation (CCL) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $6.3B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 72,
    "spread": 15,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 75,
    "claude_prob": 80,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-CUK-20260409",
    "question": "Will Carnival PLC (CUK) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $6.3B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 51,
    "spread": 60,
    "spread_delta": 55.0,
    "consensus_delta": -15.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-DRI-20260330",
    "question": "Will Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $3.1B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-FDX-20260319",
    "question": "Will FedEx (FDX) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $23.4B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 53,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 25.0,
    "consensus_delta": -15.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-ACN-20260330",
    "question": "Will Accenture PLC (ACN) report Q2 FY2026 EPS above $3.54?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.2,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-CCL-20260409",
    "question": "Will Carnival Corporation (CCL) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.31?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 7.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-CUK-20260409",
    "question": "Will Carnival PLC (CUK) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.31?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -15.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-DRI-20260330",
    "question": "Will Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $2.03?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 57,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 30.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-FDX-20260319",
    "question": "Will FedEx (FDX) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $3.72?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 0,
    "spread_delta": -25.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.7,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HSG-20260319-126b1de6",
    "question": "Will existing home sales (SAAR) exceed 4.1 million units for February 2026 as reported by the National Association of Realtors?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 43,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260319-59aea628",
    "question": "Will Continuing Jobless Claims fall below 1,800,000 by the week ending March 14, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 8.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260319-IC",
    "question": "Will initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14, 2026 exceed 250,000?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 32,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.2,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 25,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-19",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260320-64472ebc",
    "question": "Will Ethereum spot ETFs achieve net inflows of at least $150 million cumulatively in the week of March 16-20, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 51,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260320-b730a2d0",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin spot ETFs record cumulative net inflows exceeding $800 million in the week of March 16-20, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 46,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260320-e5f20859",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 58% by March 20, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 12.0,
    "consensus_delta": 10.7,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 50,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260320-23bf88c6",
    "question": "Will EUR/USD close below 1.1530 by 2026-03-20?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 52,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260320-8bda7a58",
    "question": "Will EUR/USD close above 1.1670 by 2026-03-20?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 40,
    "spread": 58,
    "spread_delta": 23.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 12,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GOLD-20260320-585f06b4",
    "question": "Will silver close below $80 by 2026-03-20?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 44,
    "spread": 94,
    "spread_delta": 55.0,
    "consensus_delta": 27.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 45,
    "gemini_prob": 1,
    "grok_prob": 95,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HOU-20260320-381b2fdb",
    "question": "Will housing starts (SAAR) exceed 1.40 million units for February 2026 as reported by the Census Bureau?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260320-7afb9d45",
    "question": "Will initial jobless claims exceed 225,000 for the week ending March 14, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 7.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-20",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-OIL-20260322-1ab49dc5",
    "question": "Will the WTI-Brent spread narrow to below $3.50 by 2026-03-22?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 48,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-22",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260323-0934401a",
    "question": "Will total crypto market cap fall below $2.4 trillion by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260323-8cb18111",
    "question": "Will total crypto market cap exceed $2.8 trillion by March 23, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 53,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GOLD-20260323-0d6b57c3",
    "question": "Will gold close below $5000 by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 20,
    "spread": 65,
    "spread_delta": 35.0,
    "consensus_delta": 8.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 10,
    "gemini_prob": 0,
    "grok_prob": 5,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GOLD-20260323-3da3fe43",
    "question": "Will the gold/silver ratio close above 85 by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 57,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 70,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GOLD-20260323-feeaa45d",
    "question": "Will gold close above $5200 by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 9,
    "spread": 14,
    "spread_delta": -50.0,
    "consensus_delta": -13.3,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 15,
    "claude_prob": 10,
    "gemini_prob": 1,
    "grok_prob": 12,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-OIL-20260323-2630517c",
    "question": "Will WTI crude close above $70.00 by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-OIL-20260323-d0b4ba0e",
    "question": "Will WTI-Brent spread close wider than -$5 by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 25.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-OIL-20260323-d32b3d83",
    "question": "Will 3-2-1 crack spread close above $25 by 2026-03-23?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 42,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-23",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-CNXC-20260409",
    "question": "Will Concentrix Corporation Common Stock (CNXC) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $2.6B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -30.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 50,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-24",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-KBH-20260409",
    "question": "Will KB Home (KBH) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $1.7B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 48,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-24",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-CNXC-20260409",
    "question": "Will Concentrix Corporation Common Stock (CNXC) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $-23.37?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 84,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 15,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 80,
    "grok_prob": 99,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-24",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-KBH-20260409",
    "question": "Will KB Home (KBH) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $1.55?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-24",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-PMI-20260324-57ee24f2",
    "question": "Will Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March exceed 50.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 55,
    "gemini_prob": 45,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-24",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-CTAS-20260407",
    "question": "Will Cintas Corp (CTAS) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $2.8B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 67,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": -35.0,
    "consensus_delta": 8.7,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-JEF-20260409",
    "question": "Will Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $2.9B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 38,
    "spread": 55,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-PAYX-20260330",
    "question": "Will Paychex Inc (PAYX) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $1.6B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 63,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-CTAS-20260407",
    "question": "Will Cintas Corp (CTAS) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $1.21?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 72,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 95,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-JEF-20260409",
    "question": "Will Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.85?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.8,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-PAYX-20260330",
    "question": "Will Paychex Inc (PAYX) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $1.10?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 63,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-20260325-8b9f47e3",
    "question": "Will the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March 2026 fall below 100.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 45,
    "spread": 15,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-25",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-CMC-20260408",
    "question": "Will Commercial Metals Company (CMC) report Q2 FY2026 revenue above $2.1B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EIA-20260326-3ea5a6ad",
    "question": "Will the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending March 20, 2026 show natural gas inventories above 1900 billion cubic feet?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 46,
    "spread": 58,
    "spread_delta": 28.0,
    "consensus_delta": -27.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 12,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-CMC-20260408",
    "question": "Will Commercial Metals Company (CMC) report Q2 FY2026 EPS above $1.58?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 55,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 85,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HOU-20260326-547a040d",
    "question": "Will new home sales (SAAR) exceed 700,000 units for February 2026 as reported by the Census Bureau?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.7,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 55,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260326-76f04b3c",
    "question": "Will continuing claims fall below 1,850 thousand for the week ending March 21, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": -30.0,
    "consensus_delta": 17.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260326-b15c4bbf",
    "question": "Will the 4-week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims exceed 222,000 by the week ending March 21, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 52,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260326-IC",
    "question": "Will initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, 2026 exceed 250,000?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 43,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-26",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260327-15ffd5aa",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin spot ETF total net assets exceed $93 billion by March 27, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 43,
    "spread_delta": 6.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 45,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 78,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260327-15358e40",
    "question": "Will USD/JPY close below 154.50 by 2026-03-27?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260327-5a4c5ac6",
    "question": "Will USD/JPY close above 157.70 by 2026-03-27?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -6.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260327-90290160",
    "question": "Will DXY close above 110 by 2026-03-27?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 35,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260327-b9ef19a5",
    "question": "Will GBP/USD close below 1.3340 by 2026-03-27?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 50,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260327-08470ab1",
    "question": "Will initial jobless claims exceed 220,000 for the week ending March 21, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 11.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-20260327-ea42f791",
    "question": "Will the third estimate of Q4 2025 real GDP growth exceed 2.5% annualized as reported by the BEA?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 55,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-27",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260330-9ae0eae2",
    "question": "Will Ethereum spot ETFs see net inflows exceeding $50 million this week (March 23-29, 2026)?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 55,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260330-ccaba9de",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin spot ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB) see weekly net inflows exceeding $100 million for the week of March 23-29, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 51,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 7.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-NKE-20260330",
    "question": "Will Nike, Inc. (NKE) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $12.4B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-NKE-20260330",
    "question": "Will Nike, Inc. (NKE) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $0.53?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 63,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ETF-20260330-5fd44974",
    "question": "Will IBIT/FBTC combined see weekly net inflows above $1B this week?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 43,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ETF-20260330-d6d8ff9b",
    "question": "Will TLT/IEF combined see weekly net outflows above $2B this week?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 36,
    "spread": 45,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-OIL-20260330-57b9b1fa",
    "question": "Will Brent crude close above $95.00 by 2026-03-30?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": -20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 7.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-30",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260331-ca2f8fce",
    "question": "Will the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly with data for January 2026 show US crude oil production above 13.5 million barrels per day?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-20260331-abfe7c31",
    "question": "Will Nike Inc. (NKE) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $11.2B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 13,
    "spread_delta": -7.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.0,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 68,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-MKC-20260409",
    "question": "Will McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS (MKC) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $1.9B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 60,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-PVH-20260308",
    "question": "Will PVH Corp. (PVH) report Q4 FY2026 revenue above $2.3B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 52,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-SNX-20260409",
    "question": "Will TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $17.4B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 55,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EIA-20260331-a01a7900",
    "question": "Will the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly report for December 2025 (released March 31, 2026) show total petroleum product supplied averaging above 20.5 million barrels per day?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-MKC-20260409",
    "question": "Will McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS (MKC) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.84?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-PVH-20260308",
    "question": "Will PVH Corp. (PVH) report Q4 FY2026 EPS above $0.09?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 51,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.3,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-SNX-20260409",
    "question": "Will TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $3.03?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 4.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 62,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-GOLD-20260331-d450d5aa",
    "question": "Will silver close above $96.52 by 2026-03-31?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 18,
    "spread": 13,
    "spread_delta": -20.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 20,
    "claude_prob": 25,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 12,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HSG-20260331-796bacda",
    "question": "Will the FHFA House Price Index increase by 0.3% or more month-over-month for January 2026 (released in March 2026)?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-HSG-20260331-b647ab4b",
    "question": "Will the Case-Shiller Home Price Index show a month-over-month decline of 0.5% or greater for January 2026 (released in March 2026)?",
    "category": "housing",
    "consensus": 36,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 50,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-03-31",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ASIA-20260401-2b948489",
    "question": "Will China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March 2026 exceed 50.0?",
    "category": "asia_macro",
    "consensus": 64,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.6,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 62,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ASIA-20260401-d745e6b0",
    "question": "Will China's official manufacturing PMI exceed 50.0 in March 2026?",
    "category": "asia_macro",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-CAG-20260323",
    "question": "Will Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $3.0B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 15,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "no",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-LW-20260323",
    "question": "Will Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $1.6B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.8,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-CAG-20260323",
    "question": "Will Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $-1.39?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 53,
    "spread": 81,
    "spread_delta": -8.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 90,
    "gemini_prob": 9,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EPS-LW-20260323",
    "question": "Will Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) report Q3 FY2026 EPS above $0.44?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 67,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.2,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 75,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ISM-20260401",
    "question": "Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March 2026 come in above 50.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 18,
    "spread_delta": 8.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 52,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260401-413c1735",
    "question": "Will ADP National Employment Report show job additions below 100,000 for March 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 45,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.2,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-PMI-20260401-1eb392e1",
    "question": "Will Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q2 exceed 10?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 50,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-PMI-20260401-619f323d",
    "question": "Will US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March exceed 50.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-01",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-FX-20260402-4d532ca4",
    "question": "Will DXY close above 100.33 by 2026-04-02?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 57,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 45,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-02",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260402-3d8d02af",
    "question": "Will JOLTS job openings exceed 7.7 million for February 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 45,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 55,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-02",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-OIL-20260402-d26b202a",
    "question": "Will Brent crude close below $90.00 by 2026-04-02?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 61,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-02",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260402-a45f866e",
    "question": "Will the US 25% tariffs on auto and auto parts take effect by April 2, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 36,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-02",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ISM-20260403-SVC",
    "question": "Will the ISM Services PMI for March 2026 come in above 52.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 62,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.7,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 63,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-LAB-20260403-38b98643",
    "question": "Will initial jobless claims exceed 220,000 for the week ending March 28, 2026?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 47,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-005",
    "question": "Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 come in below 100K?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 26,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 25,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 15,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-NFP-20260403",
    "question": "Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 come in above 150,000?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 66,
    "spread": 5,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -3.7,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 70,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-NFP-20260403-UR",
    "question": "Will the US unemployment rate for March 2026 rise above 4.2%?",
    "category": "labor",
    "consensus": 46,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 30.0,
    "consensus_delta": 10.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-PMI-20260403-4c002af7",
    "question": "Will US ISM Services PMI for March exceed 50.0?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 69,
    "spread": 18,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -0.8,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 75,
    "grok_prob": 78,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TSY-20260403-02812e29",
    "question": "Will the 2s10s Treasury yield spread close above 0.70% by 2026-04-03?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 33,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 30,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TSY-20260403-79477fb1",
    "question": "Will the US 10Y Treasury yield close above 4.50% by 2026-04-03?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 55,
    "spread": 25,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 6.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 55,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-03",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-20260404-eb733de0",
    "question": "Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 come in below 150K as reported by the BLS?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 40,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-04",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-MD-20260404-f5eab769",
    "question": "Will the US unemployment rate for March 2026 exceed 4.5% as reported by the BLS?",
    "category": "macro_data",
    "consensus": 33,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": -7.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 45,
    "gemini_prob": 30,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-04",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ASIA-20260405-d533227e",
    "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy repo rate by at least 25 basis points at the April 2026 meeting?",
    "category": "asia_macro",
    "consensus": 41,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -5.0,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 40,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-05",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260405-2221284a",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin exceed $75,805 by April 05, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 53,
    "spread": 43,
    "spread_delta": -4.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 40,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 78,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-05",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260405-ca24f17d",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin fall below $58,405 by April 05, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 40,
    "spread": 48,
    "spread_delta": 8.0,
    "consensus_delta": -12.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 45,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 12,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-05",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-TP-20260405-aa5a3d58",
    "question": "Will the global minimum 10% tariff on all trading partners take effect by April 5, 2026?",
    "category": "trade_policy",
    "consensus": 27,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 25,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-05",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260406-27f6f11c",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin dominance fall below 55% by 2026-04-06?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 10,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 1.2,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-06",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CETF-20260406-4d0125b6",
    "question": "Will US spot Bitcoin ETFs achieve cumulative net inflows exceeding $500 million for the week of March 30 - April 5, 2026?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 56,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 85,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-06",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-ETF-20260406-797de521",
    "question": "Will QQQ see weekly net inflows above $1.5B this week?",
    "category": "finance",
    "consensus": 37,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 20.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-06",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260407-370f642e",
    "question": "Will the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released on April 7, 2026 forecast global oil inventory builds exceeding 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 36,
    "spread": 50,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 0.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-07",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260407-6a99a818",
    "question": "Will the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released on April 7, 2026 forecast US crude oil production averaging above 13.6 million barrels per day for 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 53,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": 10.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 45,
    "claude_prob": 70,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-07",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260407-c05abda1",
    "question": "Will the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released on April 7, 2026 forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices averaging below $4.00/MMBtu for Q2 2026?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 48,
    "spread": 30,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.2,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 60,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-07",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-20260407-9e6bf72a",
    "question": "Will Medtronic (MDT) report Q3 FY2026 revenue above $8.7B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": 10.0,
    "consensus_delta": -2.5,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-07",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CMD-20260408-ed1396b5",
    "question": "Will the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending April 3, 2026 show US motor gasoline inventories falling below 210 million barrels?",
    "category": "commodities",
    "consensus": 30,
    "spread": 20,
    "spread_delta": -5.0,
    "consensus_delta": -1.3,
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "gpt4o_prob": 35,
    "claude_prob": 35,
    "gemini_prob": 15,
    "grok_prob": 35,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-08",
    "outcome": "",
    "resolved": false
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260408-173a0167",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin exceed $73,000 by 2026-04-08?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 58,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": -3.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.0,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 60,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 35,
    "grok_prob": 75,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-08",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260408-473ee9d3",
    "question": "Will Bitcoin fall below $70,000 by 2026-04-08?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 45,
    "spread": 35,
    "spread_delta": 0.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 40,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 45,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-08",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-CR-20260408-478b324a",
    "question": "Will Ethereum fall below $2,000 by 2026-04-08?",
    "category": "crypto",
    "consensus": 45,
    "spread": 40,
    "spread_delta": 5.0,
    "consensus_delta": 3.7,
    "confidence": "LOW",
    "gpt4o_prob": 30,
    "claude_prob": 60,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 25,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-08",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  },
  {
    "question_id": "CRENE-EARN-DAL-20260510",
    "question": "Will Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $16.0B?",
    "category": "earnings",
    "consensus": 65,
    "spread": 0,
    "spread_delta": -15.0,
    "consensus_delta": 2.5,
    "confidence": "HIGH",
    "gpt4o_prob": 65,
    "claude_prob": 65,
    "gemini_prob": 65,
    "grok_prob": 65,
    "resolution_date": "2026-04-08",
    "outcome": "yes",
    "resolved": true
  }
]