35% | Will CIO survey data show more than 35% of enterprises pulling back generative AI budgets by Q4 2026?

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventEnterprise adoption & deployment

Will CIO survey data show more than 35% of enterprises pulling back generative AI budgets by Q4 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

35%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

14pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

14pt model spread around 35% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

14pt

28% to 42%

Consensus

35%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Claude

-7pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 42%. Consensus sits at 35%, leaving a 14 point range for review.

Primary review question

Not specified

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 42%

Consensus 35%

Claude 28

Gemini 30

GPT-4o 40

Grok 42

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

While GenAI ROI challenges could emerge, historical patterns show enterprise technology budget decisions favor continuation inertia over coordinated pullbacks. A >35% figure would require broad recognition of failed productivity gains or major regulatory/

Key uncertainty

Not specified

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 35% · 14pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Morgan Stanley CIO SurveyJPMorgan CIO Tech IndexGartner CIO Panel Q3-Q4 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-03-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 8, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventEnterprise adoption & deployment

Will CIO survey data show more than 35% of enterprises pulling back generative AI budgets by Q4 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

35%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

14pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

14pt model spread around 35% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

14pt

28% to 42%

Consensus

35%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Claude

-7pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 42%. Consensus sits at 35%, leaving a 14 point range for review.

Primary review question

Not specified

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 42%

Consensus 35%

Claude 28

Gemini 30

GPT-4o 40

Grok 42

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Not specified

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 35% · 14pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Morgan Stanley CIO SurveyJPMorgan CIO Tech IndexGartner CIO Panel Q3-Q4 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-03-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 8, 2026