32% | Will the EU AI Office formally classify any frontier model as "systemic risk" during 2026?

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventPolicy & geopolitics

Will the EU AI Office formally classify any frontier model as "systemic risk" during 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

32%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

7pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Aligned

Models broadly agree on the evidence

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

7pt model spread around 32% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

22pt

28% to 50%

Consensus

32%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Gemini

+18pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Gemini anchors the upper end at 50%. Consensus sits at 32%, leaving a 22 point range for review.

Primary review question

N/A

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 50%

Consensus 32%

Claude 28

GPT-4o 35

Grok 35

Gemini 50

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

API error

Key uncertainty

N/A

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 32% · 7pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

EU AI Office classifications 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C094-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jun 30, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventPolicy & geopolitics

Will the EU AI Office formally classify any frontier model as "systemic risk" during 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

32%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

7pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Aligned

Models broadly agree on the evidence

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

7pt model spread around 32% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

22pt

28% to 50%

Consensus

32%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Gemini

+18pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while Gemini anchors the upper end at 50%. Consensus sits at 32%, leaving a 22 point range for review.

Primary review question

N/A

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 50%

Consensus 32%

Claude 28

GPT-4o 35

Grok 35

Gemini 50

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

API error

Key uncertainty

N/A

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 32% · 7pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

EU AI Office classifications 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C094-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jun 30, 2026