Will core goods CPI print positive year over year for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026?

Core goods CPI has been disinflating since mid 2022, with year over year core goods inflation falling from double digits to near zero by mid 2026. For three consecutive months of positive year over year prints in H2 2026, goods inflation would need to reverse sharply. The Fed's current stance shows hawkish persistence (rates held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17 with nine of eighteen participants projecting rates above this range by year end), which is restrictive to goods demand and inconsistent with accelerating goods prices. Historical precedent suggests core goods disinflation is durable once established and reverses slowly without demand shocks. The main path to positive readings would require either unexpected demand surge, supply shock, or policy pivot, none of which appear probable given current Fed communications and economic momentum.