Will a major economist survey show the median respondent expecting a 2026 Fed hike at any point in H2 2026?

The June 2026 SEP shows nine of eighteen participants already projecting a year end 2026 funds rate above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, and the median projection of 3.8 percent implies only one 25 basis point hike is priced into the median path. Given that nine participants are already above the range, the median survey respondent would need to shift upward by one full hike to cross the 3.75 percent threshold, an outcome that would require either a material reacceleration in inflation or a sharp deterioration in labor market data by December 2026. Historical precedents show that when the median SEP is already 25 basis points above the current target, private forecaster surveys still place only a 25 to 35 percent probability on an additional hike within the same calendar year.