Will the dominant market narrative shift back toward cuts before the September FOMC meeting?

The narrative shifted decisively away from cuts at the June 17 FOMC meeting, with the fed funds rate held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the SEP median for year end 2026 rising from 3.4 percent (March) to 3.8 percent (June), reflecting nine of eighteen participants now projecting rates above the current range. Kevin Warsh's leadership has erased the prior cutting bias. For a narrative shift back toward cuts by early September (only roughly 3 weeks away), we would need either sharp economic deterioration (recession signals, employment collapse) or significant disinflation data arriving in late August. Historical precedent shows FOMC narratives rarely reverse this quickly absent major economic shocks. The upward revision in the SEP itself and the explicit erasure of cutting bias suggest the committee is in a holding pattern; without compelling new data, markets and Fed speakers are unlikely to resurrect cut expectations so soon after this hawkish repricing.