Will Jerome Powell cast a dissenting vote while remaining on the Board during 2026?

Chair Warsh has held rates at the June 17, 2026 meeting and the September 2026 dot plot median now sits at 3.8 percent, well above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range. Historical data show sitting Chairs dissent on fewer than 8 percent of votes after the first year in office. Powell has not cast a dissent since 2019 and the current path of steady policy plus the recent upward revision in the SEP make a split vote by him unlikely.