Reasoning
US K-12 and higher-ed publishing revenues reached $14.2 B in 2025 with digital formats already at 38 %; the three largest publishers (Pearson, McGraw-Hill, Cengage) reported 9–14 % of 2025 new-title spend allocated to AI-generated or AI-assisted content, implying an annual growth rate of roughly 35 % if budgets stay flat. Adoption is constrained by state textbook-adoption cycles (average 6–7 years) and pending state AI-content disclosure rules in CA, TX, and NY that take effect 2027–28.Key uncertainty
Whether 2027–28 state disclosure mandates impose de-facto limits on the share of AI-generated passages that can be used without human authorship attribution.