50% | Will JLL or CBRE report AI-dedicated data center vacancy rates above 8% in any 2026 quarterly update?

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventCapex & infrastructure

Will JLL or CBRE report AI-dedicated data center vacancy rates above 8% in any 2026 quarterly update?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

50%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

43pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

43pt model spread around 50% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

43pt

22% to 65%

Consensus

50%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

Grok

-28pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while Gemini anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 50%, leaving a 43 point range for review.

Primary review question

Whether actual absorption of announced capacity in 2H-2026 exceeds the current 1.4 GW quarterly run-rate.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 65%

Consensus 50%

Grok 22

Claude 50

GPT-4o 65

Gemini 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

As of July 2026, hyperscale demand growth remains above 25% YoY per Equinix and Digital Realty Q1 earnings, with JLL and CBRE still reporting single-digit vacancy (6.4% and 7.1% respectively in their Q1-2026 US data-center reports); however, 35 GW of new supply is slated to deliver between Q3-2026 and Q4-2027, concentrated in Northern Virginia, Dallas, and Frankfurt, outpacing absorption forecasts by ~8 GW according to the latest CBRE North America Data Center Outlook.

Key uncertainty

Whether actual absorption of announced capacity in 2H-2026 exceeds the current 1.4 GW quarterly run-rate.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 50% · 43pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

JLL/CBRE data center market reports 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C035-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 8, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventCapex & infrastructure

Will JLL or CBRE report AI-dedicated data center vacancy rates above 8% in any 2026 quarterly update?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

50%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

43pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

43pt model spread around 50% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

43pt

22% to 65%

Consensus

50%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

Grok

-28pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 22%, while Gemini anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 50%, leaving a 43 point range for review.

Primary review question

Whether actual absorption of announced capacity in 2H-2026 exceeds the current 1.4 GW quarterly run-rate.

Shared probability axis

Range 22% to 65%

Consensus 50%

Grok 22

Claude 50

GPT-4o 65

Gemini 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Whether actual absorption of announced capacity in 2H-2026 exceeds the current 1.4 GW quarterly run-rate.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 50% · 43pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

JLL/CBRE data center market reports 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C035-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 8, 2026