Reasoning
Data center power interconnect queues at major RTOs have grown substantially, with PJM's queue reaching ~30 GW (equivalent to ~18-24 months of processing) as of mid-2024, ERCOT experiencing rapid growth in data center requests, and MISO also seeing elevated demand. Given current queue processing rates of 1-2 GW annually per RTO and continued AI/data center capacity demand, reaching 12+ month queue lengths by Q4 2026 (18 months away) requires only modest additional delays or sustained high application volumes—a threshold that appears likely given existing momentum. The structural factors (interconnection study backlogs, transmission constraint reviews, and grid upgrade timelines) suggest queues will remain elevated or grow further rather than clear substantially.Key uncertainty
Federal or state policy interventions (e.g., streamlined permitting frameworks, fast-track interconnection rules, or significant transmission investment announcements) could accelerate queue processing speed and prevent queues from reaching 12-month thresholds, which would be a material downside to this probability estimate.