Reasoning
While the US has previously imposed tariffs on technology goods, the specific targeting of AI hardware imports with new tariffs during 2026 is not a certainty. The current geopolitical landscape and the US's focus on technological competitiveness suggest a possibility, but the complexity of AI supply chains and potential economic repercussions make swift, decisive action less probable. The US has been actively seeking to onshore semiconductor manufacturing and has engaged in export controls, indicating a direction that *could* eventually lead to tariffs, but 2026 is an aggressive timeline given current initiatives.Key uncertainty
The extent and success of US domestic AI hardware manufacturing initiatives, such as the CHIPS Act investments, will significantly influence whether tariffs are seen as a necessary tool or a counterproductive measure.