Will headline PCE remain at or above 3.5% year over year for three consecutive monthly releases in H2 2026?

The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has maintained a restrictive monetary policy with the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and has erased its prior cutting bias. The June 2026 SEP median projection for the year end 2026 funds rate has been revised up to 3.8 percent, with nine participants projecting rates above the current range, indicating a continued hawkish stance to combat inflation. This restrictive policy environment, coupled with the Fed's commitment to price stability, suggests a continued effort to keep inflation elevated at or above 3.5% year over year in H2 2026 to demonstrate resolve, making three consecutive monthly releases at or above this level probable.