Reasoning
US social platforms have shown remarkable user retention despite quality degradation (Facebook maintained ~210M DAU through 2023-2024 despite content concerns). A >20% DAU loss specifically citing "AI content saturation" requires both severe platform deterioration AND users attributing departure to AI rather than other factors (privacy, competitor features, algorithm changes). While AI-generated content is increasing, platforms are implementing detection/filtering mechanisms, and user switching costs remain high. Historical precedent shows MySpace-to-Facebook transition took years despite clear superiority, suggesting 5-year threshold is tight for >20% losses from a single cause.Key uncertainty
Whether platforms will successfully implement AI detection and quality controls to prevent saturation from becoming the primary user departure driver, versus allowing algorithmic amplification of AI content to degrade user experience sufficiently to trigger mass exodus.