Will China's domestic GPU production reach 50% of domestic AI compute demand by Q4 2026?

Current domestic GPU production in China is heavily reliant on foreign technology, particularly from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, with domestic producers like Huawei and ZTE still ramping up their capabilities. Recent data shows that China's government is pushing for self-reliance through initiatives and subsidies aimed at domestic semiconductor manufacturing, but projections suggest that even with these efforts, local production may only meet about 30-40% of the total demand by 2025. Furthermore, the geopolitical landscape and potential ramifications of U.S. export controls could hinder access to key technologies needed to scale up domestic production quickly.