Reasoning
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects a 3% decline in graphic design employment between 2022 and 2032, which extrapolates to a roughly 1.5% decline by 2029 from 2024 levels, far below the 15% threshold. While automation and AI pose a long-term challenge, the immediate impact is unlikely to cause such a steep contraction given the ongoing demand for creative visual communication across various industries.Key uncertainty
The pace and effectiveness of AI's integration into design workflows and the resulting displacement of human graphic designers.