Will IDC Worldwide AI Spending Guide for 2026 revise downward by more than 10% from initial estimates?

IDC’s 2023-2025 guides were revised downward only once (by 6% in late-2023 after the SVB/credit crunch) and never by double digits; the 2025 guide, published May 2024, already embeds a 17% CAGR through 2027 that assumes continued hyperscale capex of ~$200 bn annually. With current U.S. corporate capex intentions at +4.8% YoY (Q2 Philly Fed survey) and generative-AI-related server orders still running +32% YoY (Dell/Super Micro June prints), the macro and tech-spending backdrop does not yet signal the >10% cut required.