Reasoning
Claude 3.5 Sonnet launched at $3/$15 per million tokens in June 2024; a 60%+ decline would require <$1.20 input pricing by Q4 2026. Historical AI model price drops averaged 60-80% over 18-24 months (GPT-3.5 to GPT-4o: $20→$5/M tokens in 18 months), but recent Anthropic pricing has stabilized with only 33% cuts (Claude 3 Opus to Sonnet). Current inference costs remain 3-5x above marginal hardware costs at scale, suggesting room for further cuts but not the full 60% threshold within 24 months given Anthropic's compute-constrained position.Key uncertainty
Whether Anthropic secures additional frontier-scale compute capacity from Amazon/Google that would enable aggressive price competition.