Reasoning
AI data center power demand is projected to grow 160-300% through 2026 according to major utility filings (NextEra, Duke Energy, Southern Company), while U.S. grid capacity additions are tracking 15-25% annual growth—a structural mismatch. Regional transmission constraints are already causing renewable curtailment in high-demand areas (California, Texas), and at least 3 major utilities (PG&E, ERCOT participants, Duke Energy Carolinas) have publicly acknowledged capacity limitations in forward planning documents. The combination of explosive AI load growth, multi-year transmission build timelines (5-7 years), and utilities' stated capacity concerns creates high probability that at least one major utility formally declines or significantly delays an AI data center contract specifically citing capacity constraints by 2026.Key uncertainty
Whether utilities will use "capacity constraints" as the explicit stated reason versus citing interconnection delays, transmission congestion, or rate impact concerns—utilities may decline contracts but frame the rationale differently, affecting resolution interpretation.