Will any major productivity research institute publish a 2026 paper showing AI productivity gains below initial estimates?

Current economic conditions indicate a cautious approach toward AI productivity assessments, especially given recent reports like the McKinsey Global Institute's findings that suggest lagging productivity growth despite advances in AI deployment. Historical analyses have previously shown that initial productivity estimates tend to overstate gains due to integration challenges, with the OECD noting in 2020 that actual productivity improvements from technology often take longer to materialize.