Will the IMF World Economic Outlook or similar 2026 publication revise downward AI's projected contribution to global productivity growth?

IMF's April 2024 WEO already trimmed its AI-driven productivity boost from 0.8 pp to 0.4-0.6 pp annually through 2030 after observing only 1.3 % TFP growth in AI-exposed sectors in 2023 versus 2.1 % forecast; historical precedent shows the Fund revised its 2017-19 digitalization projections down by 40 % once actual adoption lagged capex by 18 months. Current conditions—US data-center utilization at 72 % and euro-area AI patent grants flat at 2022 levels—point to slower diffusion than the models assume.