Will at least 10 SEP participants in September project a year-end 2026 rate above the June 17 target range?

The June 17 SEP already shows nine of eighteen participants projecting the year end 2026 rate above the current 3.50 to 3.75 target range, so only one additional participant needs to move above 3.75 to reach the threshold of ten. With the Fed having erased its cutting bias in June and the median SEP projection rising from 3.4 to 3.8 between March and June, the next dot plot will likely reflect the same or firmer stance amid still resilient growth and inflation data through July. Historical patterns show that when the median dots shift upward in one SEP they rarely reverse in the immediate next release, making the move from nine to ten participants above the target range more likely than not.