Reasoning
The Federal Reserve's current stance, as indicated by holding rates at the June 17, 2026 meeting and erasing the prior cutting bias, coupled with the June 2026 SEP median projection for the year end 2026 funds rate at 3.8 percent and nine of eighteen SEP participants projecting rates above the current target range, suggests a hawkish policy environment that would likely keep the MOVE index elevated. However, sustained volatility above 130 for five consecutive days requires more than just elevated rates; it typically involves significant market uncertainty or unexpected economic shocks which are not guaranteed in H2 2026.Key uncertainty
The actual trajectory of inflation in H2 2026 and any subsequent policy shifts by the Federal Reserve.