46% | Will the Nasdaq 100 decline at least 12% peak-to-trough during H2 2026?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventMarket pricing and financial conditions

Will the Nasdaq 100 decline at least 12% peak-to-trough during H2 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

46%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

37pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

37pt model spread around 46% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

37pt

28% to 65%

Consensus

46%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+19pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 46%, leaving a 37 point range for review.

Primary review question

An unexpected acceleration in economic growth could lead the Federal Reserve to adjust rates more aggressively, impacting market performance.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 65%

Consensus 46%

Claude 28

Grok 38

Gemini 55

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Given the current Federal funds target rate of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and the recent trends, the market may react to potential tightening. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicated that nine of eighteen participants foresee the rates exceeding the current target by year end, signaling potential market volatility. The Nasdaq Composite currently stands at 26,803, and historical patterns suggest significant drops can occur during rate adjustments, leading to a notable probability of a peak-to-trough decline of at least 12% in H2 2026.

Key uncertainty

An unexpected acceleration in economic growth could lead the Federal Reserve to adjust rates more aggressively, impacting market performance.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 46% · 37pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-MKT-012

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventMarket pricing and financial conditions

Will the Nasdaq 100 decline at least 12% peak-to-trough during H2 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

46%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

37pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

37pt model spread around 46% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

37pt

28% to 65%

Consensus

46%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+19pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Claude anchors the lower end at 28%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 65%. Consensus sits at 46%, leaving a 37 point range for review.

Primary review question

An unexpected acceleration in economic growth could lead the Federal Reserve to adjust rates more aggressively, impacting market performance.

Shared probability axis

Range 28% to 65%

Consensus 46%

Claude 28

Grok 38

Gemini 55

GPT-4o 65

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

An unexpected acceleration in economic growth could lead the Federal Reserve to adjust rates more aggressively, impacting market performance.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 46% · 37pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-MKT-012

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026