Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting?

The FOMC has held rates steady at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June 17, 2026, and the June SEP median projects year end 2026 at only 3.8 percent, implying at most one 25 basis point increase across the remaining five 2026 meetings (September, November, December are standard; possibly July already passed and January follows). Nine of eighteen participants project above current range, suggesting dovish consensus. Chair Warsh's June decision to erase the prior cutting bias and hold signals a cautious, data dependent approach rather than commitment to further tightening. With inflation likely moderating by mid year 2026 and the Fed having already front loaded much of its restrictive cycle, the base case is continued holds rather than hikes. However, a raise is still plausible if economic data or inflation surprises to the upside between now and year end, or if SEP median guidance shifts meaningfully higher at subsequent meetings.