Reasoning
The current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range sits 25 basis points below the June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent, yet nine of eighteen SEP participants already project year end 2026 above the present range, and Chair Warsh's June 17 decision to hold rates while erasing the prior cutting bias signals a higher for longer stance. Historical cycles show the SEP median typically rises by 20 to 30 basis points between the June and December meetings when inflation remains above 2 percent, but the absence of a fresh SEP until December 2026 leaves room for downside revisions.Key uncertainty
Whether incoming inflation data through November will confirm or refute the 3.8 percent median path.