Reasoning
NVIDIA’s FY2026 guidance and 1Q26 results show data-center revenue still running at 80%+ YoY, with Blackwell ramp adding >$10 B incremental quarterly revenue by 2H26; historical precedent shows that once a GPU generation drives >50% YoY growth, deceleration below 20% has occurred only once in the past eight quarters, and only after a full product-cycle lull not yet visible in order books. Current AI-capex announcements from Microsoft, Google, Meta and xAI total >$200 B for calendar 2026, providing a demand floor that keeps quarterly growth above 30% through at least 3Q26.Key uncertainty
Timing and scale of potential U.S. export restrictions on advanced GPUs to China that could remove 15-20% of incremental demand starting 3Q26.