Reasoning
The June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent sits only 5 basis points above the upper bound of the 3.50 to 3.75 target range, and nine of eighteen participants already project a year end 2026 rate above that bound. With the June 17 decision erasing the prior cutting bias and Chair Warsh holding policy steady, the next SEP revision could easily drift back toward 3.75 percent if incoming data show inflation reaccelerating or growth firming. Historical precedent shows the median projection has shifted 30 to 40 basis points between consecutive SEPs when the data surprise is one sided.Key uncertainty
August 2026 inflation prints that could prompt the Committee to revise its growth or inflation outlook upward.