52% | Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a cut?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventSEP and Fed communication regime

Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a cut?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

52%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

42pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

42pt model spread around 52% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

42pt

30% to 72%

Consensus

52%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

-22pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 30%, while Claude anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 52%, leaving a 42 point range for review.

Primary review question

Future inflation data could significantly impact the Fed's stance and potentially shift sentiment toward a rate cut.

Shared probability axis

Range 30% to 72%

Consensus 52%

GPT-4o 30

Gemini 40

Grok 68

Claude 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Given that nine out of eighteen SEP participants foresee a year-end 2026 funds rate above the current range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, there appears to be a general consensus against the notion of a rate cut. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained rates in June 2026 and eliminated prior biases toward cuts, indicating a preference for stability over reduction. The overall sentiment suggests hesitance towards a rate cut among participants.

Key uncertainty

Future inflation data could significantly impact the Fed's stance and potentially shift sentiment toward a rate cut.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 52% · 42pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-COM-014

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventSEP and Fed communication regime

Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a cut?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

52%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

42pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

42pt model spread around 52% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

42pt

30% to 72%

Consensus

52%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

-22pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 30%, while Claude anchors the upper end at 72%. Consensus sits at 52%, leaving a 42 point range for review.

Primary review question

Future inflation data could significantly impact the Fed's stance and potentially shift sentiment toward a rate cut.

Shared probability axis

Range 30% to 72%

Consensus 52%

GPT-4o 30

Gemini 40

Grok 68

Claude 72

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Future inflation data could significantly impact the Fed's stance and potentially shift sentiment toward a rate cut.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 52% · 42pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-COM-014

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026